Petroleum Decision Analysis and Risk Mitigation

Petroleum Decision Analysis and Risk Mitigation

Date/Time: Date(s) - 13/06/2022 - 15/06/2022( 8:00 am - 5:00 pm )
Location: Malaysia, Penang


Overview

This training programme teaches the skills required for a key component of a Petroleum Engineer’s job – creating value by making decisions that yield optimal returns on the allocation of human and financial resources. The many uncertainties inherent to the oil and gas business (estimating current ‘states-of-the world/nature’ and predicting future events) create considerable uncertainty in the value that can be realised from resource-allocation decisions. Consequently, there will be a strong emphasis on evaluating the impacts of uncertainty, managing its resultant risks and planning to exploit its up-side potential. Topics to be addressed are the decision-making process, multi-objective decision making, decision-tree analysis, decision criteria, Monte Carlo Simulation and Value of Information & Flexibility. In addition, Utility Theory will be introduced as a means of rationally accounting for risk attitudes. Some of the psychological and judgemental aspects of how people respond to uncertainty will be discussed. The techniques learned in this course will also be useful in making personal decisions.

Objectives

At the end of this training the participant will be able to:

  • Learn decision and risk analysis (D&RA) concepts & terminology that are most used in industry.
  • Understand the impact of uncertainty in decision-making.
  • Learn specific tools & processes for analysing & making decisions – useful both professionally and personally.
  • Practice using these tools & processes in Excel.
  • Learn to evaluate and interpret the output of D&RA tools and processes – to make the best decision.
  • Develop a critical-thinking, problem-solving, value-creating approach to decision-making.
  • Understand how people often actually make decisions as opposed to how they should.
  • As part of a team, perform and present a critical review of a paper/topic related to the course material.
  • Develop a borader, contextual understanding of decision & risk analysis by reading a range of relevant papers and articles.
  • Demonstrate D&RA software commonly used by industry.

Training outlines

  • Introduction to Decision and Risk Analysis
    • Decision Elements; Easy/Hard & Good/Bad Decisions; Decisions, Outcomes & Incentives
  • Multi-objective decision-making methodology
    • Advocacy vs Dialogue
    • 3-Stage, 8-Step process
      1. Structuring/Framing the decision situation
      2. Evaluating/Modelling the decision
      3. Deciding, sensitivity analysis and assessing trade-offs
    • Formally assessing Decision Quality
    • Simplifications: Scaling back to “fit for purpose”

  • Review of relevant probability, statistics and economics concepts
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Influence Diagrams and Decision-tree analysis and expected values
    • Application to Value of Information and Flexibility
  • Risk Attitudes (if time)
  • Psychological and judgmental aspects of decision-making & uncertainty assessment
  • Self-directed learning on decision-making topics

Training Methodology

  • Case Studies.
  • Individual and group discussions and exercises.
  • Intensive training by using templates, diagrams, and charts.
  • Planning activities and presentations.
  • Self-assessments.
  • Action plan.

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