Petroleum Economics and Risk Analysis
Date/Time:
Date(s) - 05/12/2022 - 07/12/2022( 8:00 am - 5:00 pm )
Location:
Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur
Overview
This course provides practical guidance in the application of the techniques of the economic analysis currently used in the oil & gas industry. It covers the techniques which assist in:
- Making investment decisions under different fiscal structure
- Carrying out cash flow analysis
- Determining economic indicators
- Analyzing and quantifying risk
- Evaluating uncertainty and sensitivity analysis
Objectives
By the end of the course, participants will be able to:
- Analyze the economic viability of various petroleum development projects
- Evaluate various investment opportunities
- Carry out a comprehensive cash flow calculation
- Incorporate inflation and project financing
- Study the application of different depreciation methods
- Determine and compare different economic indicators
- Carry out risk analysis and decision tree analysis for decision makin
Who Should Attend?
- Petroleum, Reservoir and Senior Engineers
- Geologists and Geophysicists
- Technicians
- Fire Officers
- Decision makers such as Supervisors & Managers in the Planning, Exploration, Production, Projects, Financing and Technical Departments throughout the Oil & Gas
Outlines
Cash Flow Analysis
- Familiarization with Economic terms
- Feasibility Studies
- Setting up Cash Flow Calculation
- Tax & Production Sharing Contracts
- Depreciation Methods
- Loss Carry Forwards
- Inflation
- Nominal & Real Cash Flow
- Sunk Costs
- Project Financing
Economic Indicators/Parameters
- Economic Indicators Definitions
- Present Value Concept
- Discount Factor
- Net Present Value
- Internal Rate of Return
- Effect of Start up Date
- Payback Period
- Profit/Investment Ratio
- Incremental Projects
- Comparing Economic Indicators
Risks and Uncertainties
- Risk & Uncertainty
- Expected Value Concept
- Decision Tree Analysis
- Farm-out Decision
- Probability Analysis
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Spider and Tornado Diagrams
- Reserves & Probability Distribution
- Monte Carlo Simulation
Setting up Spreadsheet Calculation
- Introduction to Spreadsheet Calculation
- Introduction to built-in economic/financial functions
- Carrying out simple cash flow using Excel
- Calculating economic indicators
- Developing cash flow charts
- Developing mathematical equations for calculating economic parametersv
- Attempting to develop sensitivity calculation
- Modifying spreadsheet calculation for different fiscal regimes
Setting up Oil Field Development Model
- Developing data input/output scheme for the model
- The use of the built-in functions for calculating different economic parameters
- Setting up an Integrated Economic Model of a Typical Oil Field Development Project
- Developing/incorporating sensitivity calculation & analysis to the model
- The use of the model for other petroleum related projects
- The use of different techniques of developing mathematical equations to speed up model development
- The incorporation of different methods of calculating depreciation.
- Incorporating loss-carry forwards
- Developing all necessary cash flow chart
Training Methodology
- Case Studies.
- Individual and group discussions and exercises.
- Intensive training by using templates, diagrams, and charts.
- Planning activities and presentations.
- Self-assessments.
- Action plan.
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