Petroleum Risks and Decision Analysis

Date/Time: Date(s) - 12/08/2019 - 16/08/2019( 8:00 am - 1:00 pm )
Location: United Kingdom, London
Category:


Petroleum Risks and Decision Analysis

OBJECTIVES

  • Describe the elements of the decision analysis process and the respective roles of management and the analysis team
  • Express and interpret judgments about risks and uncertainties as probability distributions and popular statistics
  • Represent discrete risk events in Venn diagrams, probability trees, and joint probability tables
  • Solve for expected values with decision trees, payoff tables, and Monte Carlo simulation (hand calculations)
  • Craft and solve decision models
  • Evaluate investment and design alternatives with decision tree analysis
  • Develop and solve decision trees for value of information (VOI) problems

COURSE CONTENT

  • Decision Tree Analysis: decision models, value of information (a key problem type emphasized in the course), flexibility and control, project threats and opportunities
  • Monte Carlo Simulation: Latin hypercube sampling, portfolio problems, optimization, advantages and limitations
  • Decision Criteria and Policy: value measures, multiple objectives, HSE, capital constraint, risk aversion
  • Modeling the Decision: influence diagrams, sensitivity analysis, modeling correlations
  • Basic Probability and Statistics: four fundamental rules including Bayes’ rule, calibration and eliciting judgments, choosing distribution types, common misconceptions about probability
  • Expected Value Concept: foundation for decision policy, features, pitfalls to avoid
  • Implementing Decision Analysis: problem framing, guidelines for good analysis practice, team analyses, computer tools (discussion and demonstrations), mitigating risks

COURSE PLAN

  • 35% Lectures & Theories
  • 40% Workshops, Assessments, Group Work & Exercises
  • 20% Role Play & Case Studies
  • 05% Videos
  • Pre-Test and Post Test
  • Test Results Sheet
  • Trainee Performance Analysis Reports

TRAINING METHODOLOGY

  • Case Studies
  • Group Discussions
  • Group & Individual exercise
  • Intensive Workshop by using templates, Diagrams & Charts
  • Planning Activities
  • Presentations
  • Self Assessments
  • Assignments
  • Combine case studies, and analysis of real world examples
  • Action plan

Price:

WPCS 1.1.4
3,800.00$

Bookings

Bookings are closed for this event.